In November’s glittering line-up we present three economic assessments leavened by the bittersweet Gorz saga. What does a couple do when they’ve loved each other passionately for 60 years?

And not a single bookstore in Calgary carries the story, perhaps because we spurn the softer emotions here. We do, however, find many ironically educated brethren, those who amidst soaring wages and profit, fear to set funds aside for a rainy day. We quote from the seminal study that compared Alberta’s performance to Alaska, hoping for an update. We troll longingly for Mensans interested in books.

Soul clap hands and sing if we find any. Click the Comments button to contact us, and send your faithful colleagues interesting articles or photos by pressing contributions on the Contacts page. Sense of humour desirable at all times. Play it cool.

General

Ever feel life is passing you by? Try fun with people who think. Look at mass computer games. Check out coffees, dinners, quizzes, movies, walks, concerts, lectures, ballet, and museum tours. We’re informal, unstructured, and even intellectually challenging. Picture Mensa Calgary as a community where members interact, network, support each other and enjoy each other’s company. To have fun and develop friendships, or to provide comment, contact Patricia at kathleen4057@yahoo.ca ["The universe is full of magical things, patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper." — Eden Phillpotts]

CoffeeFests

Diverting discussion at The Purple Perk, 2212 – 4th St SW, 7:00pm, Thursday November 1, 15 and 29. No subject too hot, no view too contentious, no humour too palpable, no enlightenment too welcome. Meet your peers.

Sunday brunch

Contact Daryl Richardson for details, h.d.richardson@shaw.ca. This takes place every six weeks and you’ll appreciate that Daryl needs exact numbers for reservations.

Second tuesdays

Monthly coffee and conversation evening chez Catherine Ford, 7:30pm at 2409 Morrison St SW. BYOB.

Book club

Anyone enthusiastic about books? A few more members are desired for a Mensa reading and discussion group. Contact Patricia (kathleen4057@yahoo.ca or 212-1461).

For general queries email Vicki Herd (vherd@shaw.ca).

1. What are the chances that three positive whole numbers, chosen at random, have no proper factor in common?

2. Take any number of people, list every possible committee that can be formed from them, and consider every possible pair of committees. How many people must be in the original group so that, no matter how people are assigned to committees, there will be four committees in which all the pairs fall in the same group, and all the people belong to an even number of committees?

3. In each row, place two letters at the beginning of the word to form a longer word.
        FILL
        QUIT
        RED
        SET

When completed, the eight letters used will give a word reading downwards. What is it? (with thanks to British Mensa)

4. What is the next letter in this sequence? JRFRMCAIM?

Answers to the October puzzles:

1) The first number is Roman numeral XXIII. Take the last line and place it on top of the II at the right of the equation. The II becomes "pi", and at the left we have XXII/VII.
2) From Alice in Wonderland, A Caucus-Race and a Long Tale:
     …Stigand, the patriotic archbishop of Canterbury, found it advisable – ‘"
     "Found what?" said the Duck.
     "Found it," the Mouse replied rather crossly: "of course you know what ‘it’ means."
     "I know what ‘it’ means well enough, when I find a thing," said the Duck, "it’s generally a frog or a worm. The question is, what did the archbishop find?"
3) The n in the numerator and denominator cancel out, leaving "(1) si x = ?" The result is: six = 6.
4) Dentil, Pistil, and Instil.

Answer to N&Q4 Puzzle, this issue: Victoria’s Restaurant.

Central Banks are running out of sandbags to stave off tides that, apparently ineluctably, threaten our markets and economies.

The Bear Stearns announcement on July 17, 2007, will be studied by future generations of business students as the start of the biggest market crash ever. In perspective, it was the zenith of a substantial rally and prices have slid since, albeit not in a straight line. Price action to date shows large, swift drops interrupted by lethargic rallies, excepting the two day surge of mid-September. This suggests that sellers are dumping big time while predators wait, buying small quantities but saving cash for super-discount prices later, after the market completes its plunge.

On July 17, 2007, Bear Stearns announced that two of its investment funds would cease operation after suffering heavy losses. These were subprime funds. "Subprime" is the current kitsch descriptor for loans extended to persons who, superficially, can’t afford to make loan payments. The two funds used money from investors to purchase into the lenders’ positions in subprime loans. When the mortgagees neglected or refused to pay instalments, Bear Stearns lost their investors’ money. Many other investment funds (your pension fund perhaps?) made similar errors, and their funds are likely to go out of business as well.

The difficulty is compounded by the impossibility of placing numbers on how much of which funds depend on the subprime market. Flexibility in investment vehicles has made it so easy to diversify that the flip-side of flexibility, namely security and certainty, has been compromised. Investors simply don’t know the risk that applies to their investments.

Since July 17, Central Banks around the world have tried everything to ward off a surge in bankruptcies. Among other things, they have tried the following:

1. Central Banks printed more money and placed more cash in circulation. This was both well-intentioned and perfectly lawful. The goal was to provide cash to banks such as Northern Rock that needed funds to avoid customers breaking down their doors. Banks were cash short, because they avoided lending money even to each other. They were afraid their fellow bankers wouldn’t repay these inter-bank loans!

2. Big banks in the United States put on a brave face and borrowed money from their Central Bank’s emergency lending fund. The banks made a big show of it. They claimed they didn’t need the money, but were borrowing to encourage other banks, that truly were in financial trouble, to come forward and borrow. Few people believed these claims.

3. Central Banks cut their respective interest rates, more or less in unison.

4. On August 31, 2007, US President Bush announced a mortgage relief plan. Details weren’t given except the President specifically denied that cash grants to homeowners would be part of the plan. In the absence of detail, there wasn’t much rebound in consumer confidence.

Despite the efforts of Central Banks and government, bankruptcies continue. Foreclosures are in the ascent. Housing starts and prices are in a slump. Stock markets are generally in decline. Each new action by Central Banks appears to prove the failure of previous efforts, and new initiatives are received with cynicism.

Even the September 18 large cuts in the US Fed Fund and Discount Rates haven’t had the desired effect. Sure, they boosted the stock market for a couple of days. But simultaneously they trashed the US Dollar! US bank customers could rationally believe that if their banks don’t lose their money, the Central Bank will gradually erode their savings. There won’t be much left! And the US Central Bank has promised even more interest rate cuts. It is reasonable to foresee a substantial loss in security within precisely the group whose peace of mind matters most, the group with most to lose, the babyboomers.

While this was happening, Canadian politicians dutifully stepped up to the plate, bragging about how Canada was immune to the US crisis. Guess they didn’t see the 100,000 layoffs coming at GM Canada announced today (as I write), September 24, 2007! We shall also see how higher prices abroad for Canadian products play out on Canada’s sales figures and job market.

(all rights reserved by raymond t. lee, copyright 2007 Raymond T. Lee, http://LeisurelyCashFlow.com )

The joint suicide of André Gorz, the French philosopher and founder of the magazine Le Nouvel Observateur, and his British-born wife Dorine, who was suffering from a fatal disease, has turned the love letter that he wrote to her into a surprise bestseller.

Gorz, 84, a friend of Jean-Paul Sartre, and Dorine, 83, committed suicide by lethal injection at their home in the village of Vosnon, east of Paris, on September 22. Two days later a friend found them lying side-by-side in their bedroom.

Gorz’s 75-page Lettre à D. Histoire d’un Amour (Letter to D. Story of a Love), published a year earlier, was a tribute to his wife. One French critic described the work, which won him a wider audience than his essays on ecology and anti-capitalism, as his "intellectual and emotional testament".

The couple met by chance at a card game in 1947 and married in 1949. "You will soon be 82. You have shrunk six centimetres and you weigh just 45 kilos and you are still beautiful, gracious and desirable," the book starts. "It is now 58 years that we have lived together and I love you more than ever."

Gorz goes on to describe finding out in 1973 that Dorine, who managed foreign rights for the publisher Galilée, suffered from an incurable condition caused by the contrast agent lipiodol that was used for x-rays before a back operation that she underwent in 1965. Traces of the agent reached her skull and led to cysts in her cervix, painfully pressuring her nerves.

Two years later the couple learnt that she also suffered from another illness. Gorz writes:

‘I took a photo of you, from behind: you are walking with your feet in the water on the beach of La Jolla. You are 52. You are amazing. It’s one of the images of you that I like best.

I looked at that photo for a long while after we got back home, when you told me you wondered if you didn’t have some sort of cancer. You’d already wondered that before we left for the United States but hadn’t wanted to say anything to me. Why not? ‘If I have to die, I wanted to see California beforehand,’ you told me calmly.

Your endometrial cancer hadn’t been picked up in your annual checkup. Once the diagnosis was made and the date of the operation set, we went to spend a week in the house you’d designed. I carved your name in the stone with a chisel. That house was magic. All the spaces had a trapezoidal shape. The bedroom windows looked out over the treetops.

The first night, we didn’t sleep. We were both listening to each other breathing. Then a nightingale started singing and a second one, further away, started answering. We said very little to each other. I spent the day digging and looked up from time to time at the bedroom window. You were standing there, motionless, staring into the distance. I am sure you were practising taming death in order to fight it without fear. You were so beautiful and so determined in your silence that I couldn’t imagine you giving up living.

I took time off from Le Nouvel Observateur and shared your room at the clinic. The first night, through the open window, I heard all of Schubert’s Ninth Symphony. It is etched in me, every note. I remember every moment spent at the clinic. Pierre, our doctor friend from the CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), who came to hear your latest news every morning, said to me: ‘You are going through moments of exceptional intensity. You’ll remember this always.’ I wanted to know what chances the oncologist gave you of surviving five years. Pierre brought me the answer: ‘50-50.’

When you came out of the clinic we went back to our house. Your spirit thrilled me and reassured me. You’d escaped death and life took on a new meaning and a new value. A friend immediately understood this when you saw him at a party. He stared into your eyes for a long time and he said to you: ‘You’ve seen the other side.’ I don’t know how you responded or what else you said. But these are the words he said to me, straight afterwards: ‘Those eyes! Now I understand what she means to you.’

You had seen ‘the other side’; you’d come back from the land no one comes back from. This changed your perspective. We made the same resolution without consulting each other. An English Romantic once summed it up in a sentence: ‘There is no wealth but life.’

During the months you were convalescing, I decided to take my retirement at 60. I started counting the weeks till I could pack up. I took pleasure in cooking, in tracking down organic produce that would help you get your strength back, in ordering the specially tailored medications that a homeopath had recommended you take.

Ecology became a way of life and a daily practice without ceasing to imply the requirement of a completely different civilisation. I’d reached the age where you ask yourself what you’ve done with your life, what you would like to have done with it. I had the impression of not having lived my life, of having always observed it at a distance, of having developed only one side of myself and being poor as a person. You were, and always had been, richer than I was. You’d blossomed and grown in every dimension. You were at home in your life; whereas I’d always been in a hurry to move on to the next task, as though our life would only really begin later.

I asked myself what was the inessential that I needed to give up in order to concentrate on the essential. I told myself that, to grasp the reach of the upheavals that were looming in every domain, there had to be more space and time for reflection than the full-time exercise of my profession as a journalist allowed.

I was amazed that my leaving the journal, after 20 years of collaboration, was neither painful to myself nor to others. I remember having written that, at the end of the day, only one thing was essential to me: to be with you. I can’t imagine continuing to write, if you no longer are. You are the essential without which all the rest, no matter how important it seems to me when you are there, loses its meaning and its importance. I told you that in the dedication of my last work.

Twenty-three years have gone by since we went off to live in the country, first in ‘your’ house, which radiated a sense of meditative harmony. A harmony we enjoyed for only three years. They started building a nuclear power station nearby and that drove us away. We found another house, very old, cool in summer, warm in winter, with huge grounds. It was a place where you could be happy.

Where there was only a meadow you created a garden of hedges and shrubs. I planted 200 trees there. For a few years we still did a bit of travelling; but all the vibrating and jolting around involved in any means of transport, no matter what, triggers headaches and pain through your whole body. Arachnoiditis has forced you, little by little, to abandon most of your favourite activities. You hide your suffering. Our friends think you’re ‘in great shape’. You’ve never stopped encouraging me to write. Over the 23 years we’ve spent in our house, I’ve published six books and hundreds of articles and interviews.

We’ve had dozens of visitors from every corner of the globe and I’ve given dozens of interviews. I surely have not lived up to the resolution made 30 years ago: to live completely at home in the present, mindful above all of the richness that is our shared life. I’m now reliving the instants when I made that resolution with a sense of urgency. I don’t have any major work in the pipeline. I don’t want ‘to put off living till later’ - in Georges Bataille’s phrase – any longer.

I am as mindful of your presence now as in the early days and would like to make you feel that. You’ve given me all of your life and all of you; I’d like to be able to give you all of me in the time we have left.

You’ve just turned 82. You are still beautiful, graceful and desirable. We’ve lived together now for 58 years and I love you more than ever. Lately I’ve fallen in love with you all over again and I once more carry inside me a gnawing emptiness that can only be filled by your body snuggled up against mine.

At night I sometimes see the figure of a man, on an empty road in a deserted landscape, walking behind a hearse. I am that man. It’s you the hearse is carrying away. I don’t want to be there for your cremation; I don’t want to be given an urn with your ashes in it. I hear the voice of Kathleen Ferrier singing, ‘Die Welt ist leer, Ich will nicht leben mehr’ and I wake up. I check your breathing, my hand brushes over you.

Each of us would like not to survive the other’s death. We’ve often said to ourselves that if, by some miracle, we were to have a second life, we’d like to spend it together. ‘

(extracted from Lettre à D., Histoire d’un Amour by André Gorz, translated by Julie Rose)

It had been a rough day, so when I walked into the party I was very chalant, despite my efforts to appear gruntled and consulate.

I was furling my wieldy umbrella for the coat check when I saw her standing alone in a corner. She was a descript person, a woman in a state of total array. Her hair was kempt, her clothing shevelled, and she moved in a gainly way.

I wanted desperately to meet her, but I knew I’d have to make bones about it since I was traveling cognito. Beknownst to me, the hostess, whom I could see both hide and hair of, was very proper, so it would be skin off my nose if anything bad happened. And even though I had only swerving loyalty to her, my manners couldn’t be peccable. Only toward and heard-of behaviour would do.

Fortunately, the embarrassment that my maculate appearance might cause was evitable. There were two ways about it, but the chances that someone as flappable as I would be ept enough to become persona grata or a sung hero were slim. I was, after all, something to sneeze at, someone you could easily hold a candle to, someone who usually aroused bridled passion.

So I decided not to risk it. But then, all at once, for some apparent reason, she looked in my direction and smiled in a way that I could make heads and tails of.

I was plussed. It was concerting to see that she was communicado, and it nerved me that she was interested in a pareil like me, sight seen. Normally I had a domitable spirit, but being corrigible, I felt capacitated - as if this were something I was great shakes at - and forgot that I had succeeded in situations like this only a told number of times. So after a terminable delay, I acted with mitigated gall and made my way through the ruly crowd with strong givings. Nevertheless, since this was all new hat to me and I had no time to prepare a promptu speech, I was petuous. Wanting to make only called-for remarks, I started talking about the hors d’oeuvres, trying to abuse her of the notion that I was sipid, and perhaps even bunk a few myths about myself.

She responded well, and I was mayed that she considered me a savoury character who was up to some good. She told me who she was. "What a perfect nomer." I said, advertently. The conversation became more and more choate, and we spoke at length to much avail. But I was defatigable, so I had to leave at a godly hour. I asked if she wanted to come with me. To my delight, she was committal. We left the party together and have been together ever since. I have given her my love, and she has requited it.

(by Jack Winter, The New Yorker, 1994; submitted by patricia almost)

Tania Head, la trop parfaite survivante du 11 septembre

On l’avait vue aux côtés du maire de New York Michael Bloomberg et de son prédécesseur Rudy Giuliani, lors de multiples hommages aux victimes des attaques du 11 septembre 2001. Tania Head était une pure héroïne, une parmi les 19 rescapés de la première tour touchée par le premier avion des terroristes d’Al-Qaida. Son témoignage figurait en bonne place sur le site des Survivants du drame, association qu’elle présidait. Tout était faux.

Les pires tragédies génèrent souvent, expliquent aujourd’hui les psychiatres, ce type d’appropriation du malheur de la part de mystificateurs qui, par identification mythomaniaque ou perversion, font leur miel de la souffrance des victimes. Des cas individuels que les spécialistes assimilent à une manifestation d’hystérie.

Le 11 septembre a généré sa mystificatrice. Elle disait avoir travaillé pour une filiale de la banque Merryll Lynch, au 96e étage du bâtiment. Brûlée lors de l’impact, elle avait été sortie des flammes par un sauveteur volontaire, qui aurait ensuite péri. Un homme, à l’instant de la mort, lui avait donné sa bague. Hospitalisée, elle n’avait repris conscience que cinq jours plus tard. C’est alors qu’elle avait appris que son fiancé était resté sous les décombres.

Personne n’avait cherché à vérifier ses dires. Le New York Times l’a fait, alerté par les doutes de quelques membres du site des Survivants. Non, elle ne travaillait pas pour Merryll Lynch. Et les amis de l’homme qu’elle présentait comme son compagnon - une victime véritable du 11 septembre - n’avaient jamais entendu parler d’elle.

Beaucoup d’autres éléments biographiques sont vite apparus invraisemblables. Ainsi, elle affirmait avoir étudié dans des universités aussi côtées que Stanford et Harvard. Elle disait aussi avoir porté secours fin 2004 aux victimes du tsunami en Thaïlande, et en 2005 à celles de l’ouragan Katrina à La Nouvelle-Orléans.

Interrogée lors d’une intervention devant l’institution universitaire Baruch College, en 2005, elle avait dit : "Je ressens le besoin de m’élever face à ces attaques, ces actes de haine." Depuis mardi, Mme Head n’est plus la présidente du site des Survivants. Aucun d’entre eux, ni aucune famille des victimes, n’a, à ce jour, porté plainte contre elle.

(by Sylvain Cypel, Le Monde 30.09.07)

One Decade into a New Era

Monthly oil price chart from TradingCharts.com

Ten years ago, oil prices hit their lowest levels in two decades, and pundits proclaimed that an era of lower prices was here to stay.

Industry insiders felt that not even OPEC could help the world’s producers. Prices had plummeted because of increased production from Iraq, lack of demand growth in an Asia struggling to recover from an agonizing economic crisis, and high world oil inventories following two unusually warm winters. In addition, OPEC’s members were cheating on their export quotas, and large new volumes of oil were flowing into world markets from such non-OPEC countries as Norway and Russia.

The oil industry had given up hope that prices might rebound. The chairman of Royal Dutch/Shell unveiled a five-year plan that assumed a price of $14 a barrel; he then began to muse about oil at $11. BP began working with similar assumptions. Algeria’s oil minister was so worried about the inability of OPEC to cut production that he raised the spectre of $2-a-barrel oil.

Drowning in Oil: So pervasive was the general oil-price pessimism that in March, 1999, one of the world’s most highly respected business magazines, The Economist, issued a special 20-page supplement about the prospects for crude oil. The magazine’s lead editorial described "A world drowning in oil." With spectacular bad timing, the publication argued that crude oil prices could drop to US$5 because of a glut in world supplies, and suggested that nothing could save the price of oil. "Crude is gushing from the ground at the rate of 66m barrels a day, half as copiously again as in OPEC’s prime. The world is awash with the stuff, and it is likely to remain so."

As The Economist hit the newsstands, OPEC began to bring new discipline to world crude markets. The cartel pledged its third round of production cuts in just over a year, thereby reducing exports during that period by 4.3 million barrels per day. In addition, the organization negotiated coordinated cuts by other major oil exporters – Russia, Mexico, Norway and Oman. The cartel and its co-conspirators (except Russia) stuck to their guns, and a new bull market began.

Three Eras: In my view, the rise in oil prices over the last ten years reflects a third era in the petroleum industry’s 160-year history.

• The first period lasted from 1860 until about 1970; call it the "era of growing surpluses". During that time, the key events in oil pricing had mostly to do with new discoveries and other events that increased production. In other words, the events affecting crude oil pricing reflected increases in supply. There was a general decline in real oil prices, because the amount of oil available was steadily climbing.

• What we might call the "era of energy price shocks" lasted from 1973 until almost 2000. Three price shocks – each a combination of geopolitical events and market forces – helped drive oil prices.

The first two shocks were the price spikes of 1973 and 1979-80, which were responses to events in the Middle East and OPEC’s control of supplies. Then market forces – less demand from the world’s consumers combined with increasing production, especially from OPEC producers – asserted themselves. In 1986 this led to the third shock – a rapid collapse of oil prices. Oil prices did not begin to recover until near the end of the millennium.

• The third period began a decade ago; we can call it the "era of tighter supply". Virtually all observers agree that prices have been steadily rising because oil supplies are "tight" – that is, there is little surplus oil supply to compete for existing demand. Much of the reason for this strong demand is the powerful global economy, which demands ever-greater supplies of oil. In such a seller’s market - the petroleum industry is producing 30 billion barrels of oil per year but only discovering ten billion - there is not enough competition among oil producers to drive prices down, or keep them at lower levels.

As a result, geopolitical events and concern about the availability of oil supplies are having strong impacts on crude oil prices. Many factors are now in play. These include war, terror and political instability; industrial incidents like plant and pipeline failure; storms and abnormally high and low temperatures; rapid economic growth in the developing world; industry reports and financial news and rumour, especially as they apply to oil demand and supply.

During the era of tighter supply, these factors can be powerful short-term forces driving changes in crude oil prices. Rarely before has this been the case, and never before could seemingly small incidents trigger such large price movements.

Peak Oil: This summary of the oil ages does not mention peak oil. The reason is that we have not entered that fateful period yet. Whether it arrives next year or next decade, it will represent something fundamentally different from our experience today. In the era of tighter (though still growing) supply, the world can carry merrily on. Just pay more and get on with it.

In the fourth oil era, all the rules will change. We won’t be able just to pay more for our oil. Because of the nature of the beast, we will have to learn to use less.

The chart at the beginning of this post shows the astonishing growth in oil prices during a decade of gathering scarcity. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

(by Peter McKenzie-Brown, Stratabound Minerals Corp.  see http://languageinstinct.blogspot.com/)

Alaska vs Alberta Resource Funds (Early 2000) In a Nutshell, or How Alberta Came to Need More Resource Revenue

The Alaska Permanent Fund reinvests a portion of its earnings back into principal so as to provide inflation proofing for the Fund. From its inception until 1997, the Alberta Heritage Fund did not follow this practice. During much of this period inflation was very high, resulting in substantial erosion of Heritage Fund purchasing power over time. Also, the Heritage Fund was capped at $12 billion in 1987, but its real worth now is much less. In contrast, the Alaska Fund has not only kept its purchasing power, it has increased dramatically in value due to the continued allocations of oil and gas royalties into the Fund.

The different strategies are clearly apparent by looking at the growth of the two funds from inception to the present. The Alberta Heritage Fund grew rapidly for the first decade but has stalled at approximately $C12 billion in absolute value since 1987, with real value having been eroded by inflation. Meanwhile the Alaska Permanent Fund has continued to grow; its value as at early 2000 is well over $US27 billion (Alaska Permanent Fund Website). Apart from the exchange rate, the fundamental point is that the Alaska Permanent Fund has grown significantly in the last 15 years, and the Alberta Heritage Fund has not. the different management approaches of the two Funds have meant widely varying results. Earnings were taken fully by the Alberta government into general revenues, and inflation proofing was not being done. Presumably, of course, these monies were improving the ongoing standard of living of the province’s citizens. However, it is difficult to determine the impact on other areas of the economy that the additional funds have provided in Alberta, or would have provided in Alaska if it had used a similar strategy.

(by allan a warrack and russell r keddie, Faculty of Business, University of Alberta, Edmonton. From Alberta Heritage Fund vs. Alaska Permanent Fund: A Comparative Analysis. See  http://www.commonwealthnorth.org/fund07/Warrack_Alberatafund_vs_APF.pdf)

A High Court judge has ruled that An Inconvenient Truth can be distributed to every school in England but only if it comes with a note explaining nine scientific errors in Al Gore’s Oscar-winning film.

The Government had pledged to send thousands of copies of the film to schools across the country, but a Kent father challenged that policy saying it would "brainwash" children. A judge was asked to adjudicate between Stewart Dimmock and the Department of Children, Schools and Families. Mr Justice Burton ruled that the film could be sent to schools, but only if it was accompanied by new guidlines to balance the former US vice-president’s "one-sided" views.

The judge said some of the errors were made in "the context of alarmism and exaggeration" in order to support Mr Gore’s thesis on global warming. He said that while the film was dramatic and highly professional, it formed part of the ex-politician’s global crusade on climate change and not all the claims were supported by the current mainstream scientific consensus.

He went on to list those errors:

Error one
Al Gore: A sea-level rise of up to 20 feet would be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland "in the near future".
The judge’s finding: This is distinctly alarmist and part of Mr Gore’s "wake-up call". It was common ground that if Greenland melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia."

Error two
Gore: Low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls are already "being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming."
Judge: There was no evidence of any evacuation having yet happened.

Error three
Gore: The documentary described global warming potentially "shutting down the Ocean Conveyor" - the process by which the Gulf Stream is carried over the North Atlantic to western Europe.
Judge: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was "very unlikely" it would be shut down, though it might slow down.

Error four
Gore: He asserted - by ridiculing the opposite view - that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit".
Judge: Although there was general scientific agreement that there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts".

Error five
Gore: The disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was expressly attributable to global warming.
Judge: This "specifically impressed" David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, but the scientific consensus was that it cannot be established that the recession of snows on Mt Kilimanjaro is mainly attributable to human-induced climate change.

Error six
Gore: The drying up of Lake Chad was used in the film as a prime example of a catastrophic result of global warming, said the judge.
Judge: "It is generally accepted that the evidence remains insufficient to establish such an attribution. It is apparently considered to be far more likely to result from other factors, such as population increase and over-grazing, and regional climate variability."

Error seven
Gore: Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans is attributable to global warming.
Judge: There is "insufficient evidence".

Error eight
Gore: Referred to a new scientific study showing that, for the first time, polar bears were being found that had actually drowned "swimming long distances - up to 60 miles - to find the ice".
Judge: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm." That was not to say there might not in future be drowning-related deaths of bears if the trend of regression of pack ice continued - "but it plainly does not support Mr Gore’s description".

Error nine
Gore: Coral reefs all over the world were bleaching because of global warming and other factors.
Judge: The IPCC had reported that, if temperatures were to rise by 1-3 degrees centigrade, there would be increased coral bleaching and mortality, unless the coral could adapt. But separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution was difficult.

(by nico hines, the Times Online, October 10, 2007)

[We observe further: the judge awarded Mr Dimmock only 2/3 of his court costs. We observe that one of Mr Dimmock’s main supporters is part of a counter-campaign to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change. Mr Dimmock and the supporter are connected through an English right-wing group, whose manifesto was written by the supporter and of which Mr Dimmock is a member. The supporter has obtained funds from a right-wing Washington think tank to create a film that parodies Al Gore. The intent is to distribute the parody to English schools.]

The land of the rising sun and a first-class ticket to Fukuoka. Japan has an excellent GDP, social peace, and technology in overdrive. When you want to see the future of our handhelds, see what’s on the Tokyo street. It’s like Paris fashion: three years ahead of the striving American midwest. The Japanese are hardworking, ingenious souls who juggle toil and leisure, art and life. Right? Their culture makes us look like Johnny Jump-Ups. Who could resist an invitation to visit and invest.

So Greg recycled his VISA and bought us lovely seats aboard JAL and then at the Fukuoka Kokusai for the November sumo tournament, the premium bout of the year.

That was in 2004. I was wary. This wasn’t the first time a broker has set his sights on little me. But Greg was as polite as, well, he needed to be. And Japan was plowing its hard-earneds back into the pockets of the people who were buying their products. They were investing in American funds that loaned to the financials that loaned to consumers. And consumers were buying Japanese products like they eat potato chips. The Japanese in Fukuoka took cash at both ends: Americans bought their cars and electronics, and then paid them interest on the money they borrowed to buy. Plus that extra touch of reassurance. The Japanese couldn’t go ballistic, because they had their economies strapped into the American dollar. If the dollar slid too much, the Americans would repay their lenders with depreciated assets. No fun on the Japanese side. Everyone had to play fair, which puts money in the pockets of friendly folk like us.

I confess I placed a dollar or two in the main players, the giants like Yamaha and Nintendo. The Shinto gods like big men, that’s why they like sumo wrestlers. I ponied up $100,000. This was new terrain for me. But my Japanese shares soared 50% in 2005 and I sold half. 2006 was more realistic. The market gained 5% overall with major roller-coasters. I don’t watch the markets every day or even weekly. Stick to the fundamentals, I say, and let the cowards bail.

Which brings me to today’s lesson, as my Pastor father used to say. Nothing has changed. America was entering a recession in late 2006 and still is now. Watch for really bad news around the time of the Presidential election. The subprime problem hasn’t gone away, because it really wasn’t limited to subprimes. Lenders are overextended. Any threat to repayments and they shout for assistance. Even worse, the extent of risk is concealed by the re-investment and re-assurance practice of funds and trusts. Nobody knows where they stand and everyone is consequently nervous and prepared to cry wolf. These aren’t the worst circumstances one can imagine, but they aren’t the best either.

Is Japan the answer? No, love, I’m afraid not. Japan is too dependent on the American consumer. But what’s a clever analyst to do? Where do we safely store the millions we’ve acquired against a rainy day?

Japan’s stock markets are big and liquid. Its companies are enormously successful and proven in fair weather and foul. They make what we need and want. And they’re pointed at the future: the most successful green companies are Japanese. Or if you think the future lies elsewhere, consider that Honda and Yamaha make huge profits out of the developing world. If you want a slice of the Chinese and similar markets, without the risk, you could do worse than a large Japanese manufacturer.

At bottom, we can’t avoid the fallout from a worldwide financial catastrophe. If it happens, the best we can do is ride it out and position ourselves for the upsurge. The question isn’t how to make money, but how to lose as little as possible. We could do worse than place a little green with the best players in the business.

Which reminds me, anyone out there interested in a brains-for-hire company that is vastly underpriced? The Shinto gods are watching.

(by gertie. Check out http://gertieg.com/ and http://moneylet.com)

China’s one-child-per-family law, enacted in the 1970s, has apparently prevented about 300 million births since that time - roughly equivalent to the entire population of the United States. Now China is making the connection between its reduced birth rate and the environment.

China says that, "… avoiding 300 million births means we averted 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2005". Hard to argue with the math. The question is whether China is doing its part in the fight against global warming. Oops, guess they are: "This is only an illustration of the actions we have taken," said Su Wei, a senior Foreign Ministry official.

The environmental benefit of reduced population is real. Spinning that reality as though it were China’s intended contribution to the environment is laughably dishonest in a country where air pollution causes up to 750,000 premature deaths each year.

(submitted by patricia almost)

In 1986, Dan Harrison was on holiday in Kenya after graduating from Northwestern University .

On a hike through the bush, he came across a young bull elephant standing with one leg raised in the air. The elephant seemed distressed, so Dan approached it very carefully.

He got down on one knee and inspected the elephant’s foot and found a large piece of wood deeply embedded in it.

As carefully and as gently as he could, Dan worked the wood out with his hunting knife, after which the elephant gingerly put down its foot.

The elephant turned to face the man, and with a rather curious look on its face, stared at him for several tense moments.

Dan stood frozen, thinking of nothing else but being trampled. Eventually the elephant trumpeted loudly, turned, and walked away.

Dan never forgot that elephant or the events of that day.

Twenty years later, Dan was walking through the Chicago Zoo with his teenaged son.

As they approached the elephant enclosure, one of the creatures turned and walked over to near where Dan and his son Dan Jr. were standing.

The large bull elephant stared at Dan , lifted its front foot off the ground, and then put it down. The elephant did that several times then trumpeted loudly, all the while staring at the man.

Remembering the encounter in 1986, Dan couldn’t help wondering if this was the same elephant.

Dan summoned up his courage, climbed over the railing and made his way into the enclosure. He walked right up to the elephant and stared back in wonder. The elephant trumpeted again, wrapped its trunk around one of Dan’s legs and slammed him against the railing, killing him instantly.

Probably wasn’t the same elephant.

(submitted by steve turnbull)

A Mensa group recently toured historical sections of Mission and Cliff-Bungalow on a lovely Sunday afternoon. We found some of the less obtrusive buildings as beautiful as those that have been extensively refurbished. For example, did you know Alberta Ballet is housed in an elegant CNR train station that was originally St. Mary’s parish hall? The first trains arrived in 1913 and the last in 1971.

Which takes us by strange detour to 1932, when a local farmer started to market milk from his Springbank dairy farm. In 1934, he moved the operation to the building pictured below, which became a modern processing plant. To foster sanitation, the farmer used only brick in the structure. Milk bottles appropriately decorated the exterior, and his was the first dairy in Alberta to use trucks for distribution. Eventually, 85 vehicles carried milk to locations in Calgary. In the 1960s, this dairy had the largest production of any in Alberta, and it was sold to Palm Dairies in 1965. Do you know what is presently at the site? (For the answer, see the puzzle section in this issue.)

The countdown had stalled at T minus 69 seconds when Desiree, the first female ape to go up in space, winked at me slyly and pouted her thick, rubbery lips unmistakably – the first of many such advances during what would prove to be the longest, and most memorable, space voyage of my career.

(by martha simpson, Glastonbury, Connecticut)